November 24, 2004

Long Bets

Numbers 8 and 129 are resolved (although I don't see anything marking them such). Which open predictions need an advocate for the other side? 105 looks like a prime candidate.

  • 129 isn't resolved yet. Something could happen. Helluva long shot, but still. Some of these are rigged bets. The only person who can collect on bet 11 (At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150) is the predictor. Bet 163 (You are immortal) keeps either party from collecting. Bet 63 (By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth) is a sure thing for the challenger, since there's already "explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics". There nothing that mystical about stains. Of course, if someone is making this "prediction" they won't ever accept that science isn't that confused about the shroud.
  • Never mind on what I said about 129. I just read it's judgement criteria.
  • I'm more concerned with why Ted Danson and Brian Eno are betting on this stupid crap. Nothing else to do with their piles of money?